Nuclear War: A Scenario

My teenaged years covered most of the 1980’s. Exacerbated by my love of science fiction and post-apocalyptic fiction, I was obsessed by the idea of nuclear war. I still think that the final half hour of the movie War Games (besides being now a nostalgic snapshot of early home computer technology) is still some of the scariest moments ever put to film. From duck-and-cover-drills to the television event that was The Day After, fear of nuclear war was everywhere. Then, came the end of the Cold War and a shrinking of nuclear arsenals. Nuclear war seemed to fade from our collective consciousness. Now, in this excellent, frightening book, Ms. Jacobsen reminds us of how easily nuclear war could start and destroy the world.

In this book, Ms. Jacobson gives us a minute-by-minute scenario where North Korea launches a single nuclear missile targeting Washington DC, followed by a sub-launched missile targeting a nuclear power plant in Southern California. Within 24 minutes after launch, these 2 missiles lead to a cascading sequence of quick decisions and escalating events that are irreparable. In less than an hour, the entire world is engulfed in destruction. It is absolutely chilling because it could so easily happen.

Along the way, Ms. Jacobsen describes the history of the development of our nuclear arsenal and the way it could potentially be used. She shows how the president became the sole decision-maker on the use of our nuclear weapons but how choices are actually limited by the necessities of the military and the tiny timeframe in which to make decisions. She discusses the actual war games and scenarios that have been played out in all seriousness by our military and its scientists and the sad fact is that none of these scenarios lead to anything other than total obliteration.

Due to my interest in the subject, I was familiar with some of what Ms. Jacobson describes here, though to have it play out in real time is nerve-wracking. There were some things with which I was not familiar, however; in particular, I did not realize how shoddy Russia’s early warning system is. (Knowing that there are Russian spies living near silos to visually report a launch seems ridiculously low-tech.) I also admit that one major question I had was how, despite this, Russia was not aware of North Korea’s launch in a similar time frame to the U.S. How could they not know the launch was from there? How could they only become aware something was happening when we launched? It seems a bit beyond belief.

Anyway, I have rarely come across such a frightening read. The description of what happens once the bombs start to hit is sickening. Though I am an optimist who believes some form of human life will hang on in the wilds of New Zealand or Antarctica, surviving the decade of darkness and rebuilding some form of human culture is not something in which I would want to participate. Like Dr. Falken in War Games, I live close to a primary target: “a millisecond of brilliant light and we’re vaporized”. God willing, we’ll find a way past this deadly era. If a lot of people read this top-notch book, perhaps we’ll have a better chance.

Nuclear War by Annie Jacobsen A Review by Harold W. Miller

Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, global nuclear war has receded from the concerns of most people. However, the forbidden subject has reemerged with the Ukrainian-Russian war and nuclear-armed rogue states becoming a real threat. An award-winning journalist for the Los Angeles Times, Annie Jacobsen has written a convincing scenario for a worldwide nuclear war.

A scenario is an outline of predicted events. In a military scenario, the actors are commanding officers, military units, and civilian authorities. I wrote a scenario for how my army command would be relocated to Europe during the war with the Soviet Union. It is a work of fiction, but the courses of action are as realistic as possible. Scenarios in this case act as a guide for implementing policy.

In Jacobsen’s book, the scenario is this: A rogue nation, North Korea, and its leader, Kim Il Un, launch three ballistic missiles at the United States: The Pentagon, a nuclear power plant in California, and a third over the United States to produce an overwhelming Electro-Magnetic Pulse to wipe out America’s power grid. The government of the United States had no warning and, at this time, had no inkling of the impending attack. Through a series of miscalculations, Russia thinks the United States is attacking because the retaliatory strike of Minutemen missiles will cross over Russian territories. In the meantime, the President has around fifteen minutes to decide whether to authorize a counterstrike. He, at the last second, decides on a proper response. He’s whisked away to an underground bunker outside of the District of Columbia. Before he gets to the bunker, Marine Helicopter One crashes. Now, the top echelon of civilians must agree on a successor. While this happens a second hydrogen bomb-equipped missile hits the Canyon Diablo Nuclear Power Plant in California. Now, the Russians seeing the counterstrike against North Korea convince themselves that they are under attack and not waiting for a response from Washington, launch a retaliatory attack with Russia’s entire arsenal of bombs. Predictively, the Acting President retaliates with all the United States’ arsenal.

Two things I came away with were: the decisions being made with the idea that there may only be thirty minutes to decide the fate of mankind. Only one man, the President of the United States and the President of Russia will be carrying the burden of deciding the fate of mankind. The other point is that another man, Kim Il Un, can start the fuse being lit without a word of consultation from any other leader. Kim Il Un has the Hwasong-17 ICBM, he has most likely a one-megaton hydrogen bomb, and Un has an elaborate underground bunker which is on a par with or better than what the US or Russia has. Un has the disposition of doing things alone and has no allies to consult with.

The book's final section describes what a full-blown nuclear attack would be like. One thousand warheads were directed at every conceivable target in the United States. Hundreds of millions in the United States would die an extremely painful death. Russia, in Europe, and in close allied countries such as South Korea and Japan would face a similar fate. China, even if it didn’t get drawn into the war, would suffer hundreds of millions of casualties due to radioactive fallout. The book is a quick read. She did a lot of research on this project and used heretofore highly classified documents and interviews with former department heads in several defense agencies. It doesn’t call for any recommendations. I recommend this book to anyone concerned with the war talk going around nowadays.

It's hard to express how good Nuclear War: A Scenario is, but let's start with Jacobsen herself: articulate, deeply informed, plausible. I've watched several podcasts with her discussing the book's contents, and she's totally convincing. Too bad for us: that angelic voice telling you you're doomed. Then there's the nail-biting narrative: sometimes Jacobsen uses sentence fragments (as opposed to complete subject/verb/object constructs) to throw you as the reader off guard, or to emphasize the dire nature of events that she's describing, and add more discomfort/urgency to a dire global situation that unfolds, minute by minute, or second by second. Maybe Jacobsen always writes like this, but if I'm gonna die, I want someone shouting urgent facts rather than spouting "literature." What's really uncomfortable about this narrative, though, is social media/the daily news, which validate what Jacobsen's predicting. All it takes is one rogue wave to knock everybody to smithereens. We've got loose cannons in governments broadcasting threats every day now--geez! Maybe the negative payload of a book such as Nuclear War is having to know something we wish, wish, wish weren't true--and if you experienced "drop" under a desk in the fourth grade, like I did, you remember the perpetual, lurking Cold War nuclear threat (like "dropping" would've done any good)--but now Jacobsen's book updates that, telling us on how terrifying and real this threat is. So, it's not better: it's worse. But Is it better to ostrich this out, or realize how tenuous people's individual and collective destinies currently are? Get Nuclear War: A Scenario and find out. Now I'm going to read the rest of Jacobsen's books--the subject, I understand, being "pure evil" in every one of them--to see what the buildup to Nuclear War is: what covert action, killing machine mentality, or arrogance and stupidity is behind this book? Yeah. Maybe I don't want to know, but because Jacobsen's effective, I'm gonna do it.

"Nuclear War, a Scenario" is a gripping and heart-wrenching exploration of the potential end of civilization. Each chapter delves deep into the harrowing reality of nuclear conflict, capturing the nerve-wracking speed at which our world could unravel. The narrative is intense and thought-provoking, leaving readers on the edge of their seats as they confront the fragility of human existence. This book is a stark reminder of the devastating consequences of nuclear war, making it a must-read for anyone interested in the future of humanity.